2011 prediction: Make it mobile

December: it’s the month for next year’s prediction lists. Ten or so nuggets of forecast wisdom about the world we’re about to live in. As 2010 ticks over into 2011, I think there’s just one mantra for marketers: “Make it mobile”

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For a decade “mobile” has meant phones. Not any more – at least not exclusively. Apple’s iPad broke the barrier between phones & computing screens, but it’ll be android, Windows mobile et al that deliver the volume. The change will be astonishingly swift. The iPad set new marks for growth, and the arrival of iPad2 will keep the momentum high (iPad2 in February 2011?). Entry level 7″ Android tablets are heading under the $100 mark early in 2011. Between that sub $100 price point, and mobile contract subsidies , we’re going to see an explosion in tablet sales, on all platforms.

The consequences? Mobile data will grow: “Bruno Jacobfeuernborn CTO Deutsche Telecoms says near future Data traffic will grow 60x in mobile, while only 5x in fixed” @tomiahonen #wsamobile
Sixty times!

Royal Pingdom summarises the operating systems thus:

Worldwide mobile OS usage

The detail is:

Mobile OS market share based on web usage

These ‘share’ bars don’t of course show the relative numbers of active handsets, or their economic  value.

Tomi Ahonen, again:

” 20% of the Kenyan GDP transits a mobile phone today. It was only 10% as late as May and m-banking is only 4 years old. It passed 50% of all banking users just this spring. Meanwhile M-Pesa the biggest mobile banking service in Kenya has projected that 25% of the Kenyan GDP will transit a mobile phone before the end of 2010.”

That rate of growth challenges iPad!

The African symbian handsets are already handling huge proportions of GDP: developed countries are (relatively) tinkering with App sales and Near Field Communications. The ‘developed’ world will catch up on the transaction potential of mobile platforms in 2011.

Or rather, the more mature computing markets will bring their established computing behaviours to mobile screens – large & small.

In 2011.

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