Seth nails it: there’s two ways to market online - burn permission with frequency (make money  now, rebuild your customer base later), or engage, and dig in for a longer haul, but with permission.

I’ve always been a fan of the latter – work the customer base, with their consent, to grow your network by engaging theirs. Rather than talking about ‘permission’ which has a kinda ‘yes/no, once & for all time’ feel to it, I think of this as ‘consent’ –  it has a softer feel to the relationship, & maybe there’s more of a 2 way sense to the relationship.

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It’s no surprise to find that UK managers are the most negative: over the past 12 months I’ve worked with folk for the UK (natch!), Sweden, South Africa, Australia, America, and even a Brit based in Australia… they are consistently more positive, energetic and constructive than UK management.

The ability of UK folk to sit, diss, and do nothing, is astonising.

So I applaud  UK clients who do manage to stay positive, in spite of the zeitgeist.

</rant>

How often does that negativity seep out to customers? I guess the trite answer is that “once would be too often”.

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Two pieces of retail research news today: no mention of social networks, just shops selling goods to customers.

The Times has:

Online sales of groceries are predicted to double over next five years  Sarah Butler

“The amount of groceries sold over the internet is expected to double in the next five years, according to new research that suggests that one in ten shoppers will no longer visit a supermarket by 2012.

“IGD, the grocery market research organisation, predicts that sales of groceries online will reach £5 billion in five years’ time, although this will still be a small fraction of the £156 billion expected value of the total grocery market. At present only 2 per cent of groceries are sold online and that would rise to just over 3 per cent by 2012, according to the IGD’s figures.

“Grocery retailers said that they believed IGD’s predictions were conservative and that online grocery sales, which are increasing by about 30 per cent a year, could double within the next three years.  [...]

“Tesco, by far the biggest online grocer in the UK, sells £1.23 billion of groceries online – about 3½ times the level achieved five years ago. Last year its online grocery sales rose by about 30 per cent.
Those sales make up nearly 5 per cent of Tesco’s UK business”

while the FT has:

Affluent flock to online stores  By Tom Braithwaite

“London’s affluent commuter belt boasts the UK’s largest number of home shopping devotees as cash-rich, time-poor consumers flock to the internet. Two-thirds of home shopping hotspots are now in the home counties, while the north and Scotland lag behind, on a list compiled by Experian.

“The data research company found Sunningdale in Berkshire had vaulted to the top of this year’s list, overtaking Barnes in south-west London, with an average spend of £137 a head in the 12 months to June. Two-thirds of the top 100 towns were within commuting distance of London, while 77 per cent were in the south.

“Overall home shopping spend increased by 15 per cent in 2006-07 as more retailers launched transactional websites, broadband penetration increased and consumers became more web savvy.”

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The FT reports the IAB’s study that shows car manufacturers advertising online more often, encouraged by the higher share of 50+ and female users.

Financial services are the next largest spenders: search advertising takes up the lions’ share of spend, with paid search accounting for much of that, and growing at 40% year on year, with online advertising being worth 14.7% of all UK ad spend.

Meanwhile BT Broadband picks different bones out of the same IAB report, highlighting how brands can be built more effectively online

They’re quite right to pick up on how Innocent Drinks deliver thier brand online. It’s beautiful, accessible, real. In an online world where business’ reputations are judged by personal and social network’s experience of a company, it’s important to keep the brand on a human scale.

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Oh yeah

This strikes chord!

And it’s great to see a viral video that works, without levels of sex or violence that wouldn’t be allowed on broadcast TV.

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“Privacy laws have not kept up with the reality of the internet and
technology, where we have vast amounts of information and every time a
credit card is used online, the data on it can move across six or seven
countries in a matter of minutes,” Mr Fleischer told the Financial
Times
ahead of his speech.

This is good.

It may be a partially-formed thought at the moment, but without Google’s participation, any initiative will struggle to become a standard. With Google’s involvement, online practice and laws have a chance of defending our privacy – but in ways that are practical for individuals and lawyers, and commercially sound for online businesses.

So for example A Bill of Rights for Users of the Social Web and has a lot more chance of becoming accepted if it’s adopted by Google – and Skype. It’ll be interesting to see how the two approaches compare.

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’tis the new big thing: local search + social network recommendations.

Actually, I saw a broadsheet Sunday newspaper quoting research that ‘we’ trust our friends’ and communities’ restaurant  recommendations more than we trust professional restaurant reviewers – so maybe there’s something in this social networking, reviews, and local search thing?!

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BEA’s pan-european business survey includes this news (as reported by Silicon):
The survey also found that the demand for mashups,
where a website or application that combines content from more than one
source into an integrated experience, was set to treble from its
current level of 6% of organisations to 18% within 18 months.”

Have you got an adoption curve to hand? Then we’ll begin!
At 6%, mashups are playful fun for early innovators: at 18%, they’re heading rapidly for the mainstream, in 2009.

Trouble is, at the same time elsewhere in Silicon today, they’re reporting on IT skills shortages – with retail organisations and banks unable to fill 40%-50% of vacancies… Now, maybe the skilled workforce doesn’t exist in the right parts of the country. Or maybe companies aren’t paying enough – in spite of IT’s year on year pay inflation. Genuinely useful online features save business money by reducing cost while making it easier to perform a task: that’s just the sort of high-bang-for-the-buck customer content that mashups provide. Perhaps some of those cost-efficiency gains need to be diverted back to their source – IT teams’ pay packets?

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“(Reuters) – The New York Times Co. plans to stop charging Internet users for access to its columnists and Op-Ed pieces on a section of its Web site known as TimesSelect, The New York Post reported on Tuesday.”

An interesting development. The New York Times has been at the leading edge of developing its web content – as you might well expect of one of the world’s great newspapers. It has in the past been reported as being among the first papers to profit from its online edition. Presumably now the online readership has grown – and the advertising rate card costs have risen – to the point where the additional free readership & ad revenue will more than compensate for lost subscription revenues.

And of course it’s a very strong competitive move.

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A cracking – but no surprises – article in the FT: TV ad income is down, but within the figures, TV companies’ income is shifting to digital channels. Their audience is fragmenting.

In 2010 internet advertising will overtake TV; only press advertising will be larger:

“Advertising spending on the internet, which was 14.2 per cent of the
total last year, is forecast to be 26.9 per cent in 2012, overtaking
television as the second largest platform for advertisers in 2010.

“Press advertising is estimated to fall from its 46 per cent share to just over 38.3 per cent in six years.”

Which will give us *very* interesting times: we have hundreds of years culture in press advertising; 50+ years of commercial tv expertise. And a decade of online ad exposure, which has been a fairground ride, with folk clinging to the handrail to keep up with the pace of technical innovation and explosions in site traffic.

How much consensus is there, right now, on what makes a good online ad campaign? Site views?  Registrations? Viral infection rates? Awareness? Sales?
Put any three experts in a room & you’ll get 4 views.

Now, it was always the same in tv & press – but built on rather more firm foundations. Which means that the online industry had better get some consensus on what to measure, and what to return on investment to expect, pretty quickly.
In three years or less.

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